Tuesday, September 28, 2004

GOTV


They are doing it.
Supporters Get Incentive Plans at Bush Rallies

Want to see the president when he comes to your town? Get in line - to make phone calls for his campaign.

President Bush's campaign aides say they have hit on a novel way to recruit volunteers for his get-out-the-vote army. Anyone wanting to attend one of Mr. Bush's campaign rallies, anywhere in the country, has to get a ticket first. And anyone wanting a ticket, or a coveted spot up front, can improve his chances by putting in a few hours at a phone bank, canvassing Republican homes or putting up lawn signs.

Campaign rallies may be as old as politics itself, but in this year of earliests, firsts and most-expensive-evers, the Bush campaign has taken this most basic form of communication to a new state of the art, by pressing audiences to work as foot soldiers, before, during and immediately after Bush events.

The tactic points up a stark difference between the presidential campaigns: while Senator John Kerry is using his rallies and forums to try to reach undecided voters and to close the deal with standoffish Democrats, Mr. Bush is packing his audiences with supporters who must identify themselves as such in questionnaires and whipping them into brigades ready to blitz crucial districts to get every last voter to the polls.

Kerry aides scoff at the invitation-only audiences and what they say is the shanghai-ing of volunteers. "We don't require oaths of allegiance, and we don't take people captive," said Tom Shea, director of the Kerry campaign in Florida, after turning out close to 10,000 people for a rally in Orlando last Tuesday where, he said, 700 people signed up to help.

But Donald P. Green, a professor of political science at Yale and the author of "Get Out the Vote! How to Increase Voter Turnout," said Mr. Bush's strategy was inspired. "There's a basic principle in experimental psychology, that the hand teaches the heart," Professor Green said. "You've now made phone calls for George Bush; that helps solidify your commitment to the campaign. If you weren't enthusiastic and committed already, you might be now."

At a rally in Bangor, Me., last Thursday, Katrina Waite had driven nearly two hours and then waited seven more under a sweltering sun to see the president. The reward for her early arrival? A spot way in back, atop a flatbed truck, where she downed cups of water fetched by her two children to stave off the heat.

Ms. Waite said her mother had earned a spot up front. "She did three hours of phone calling to get it," she said, peering to try to pick her mother out in the crowd.

If Mr. Bush likes to call his retail politicking "fertilizing the grass roots," the volunteer recruitment can create a kind of hothouse effect.

When Laura Bush came to Maine a few weeks ago, for example, scores of people were persuaded to stick around and make calls from a phone bank in the basement of the building where she spoke. . .
This kind of stuff might sound distasteful, but I agree with Dr. Green; psychologically, it is brilliant. Who is more likely to actually show up at the polls? The Kerry supporter who just listened to a speech, or the Bush supporter who worked a phone for three hours to convince others to go vote. It is Salesmanship 101:
Small agreements lead to bigger ones

If someone came up to you and asked you for your agreement on some major issue, they are more likely to get a no from you than if they came up to you and led you on with a series of much smaller issues that you can easily agree on, building to the major issue.

Incomplete tasks

Most people are quite disturbed by tasks or events that are incomplete. . . when you have incomplete tasks, you keep thinking about them until you complete them. It is easier for people to remember and stay focused to incomplete tasks.

Cognitive dissonance

In plain English, this means that people hate it when their beliefs are inconsistent with their actions. They won't rest until they resolve that conflict by changing their thoughts, beliefs or actions.
That last one works in reverse, too. Not only will true believers work to get out the vote, but those who work to get out the vote may become true believers.

This election is very close, and close elections are decided by turnout. A few battleground states, including mine, are going to make the difference.

What are you doing? Now, I'm not saying we need "loyalty oaths" and forced labor, even if they do work. What I'm saying is that I have noticed a bit of, shall we say, insufficient enthusiasm for our candidate around the blogosphere lately. A bit of whining and carping, "I don't like him much", "he won't leave Iraq immediately", "he doesn't support my pet issue enough", and this has me very concerned.

I'm saying "get over it, please". Me? I wanted Dean. But Kerry is who we've got, and he is the one we have to elect. I'm a big believer in "six degrees of separation" and I'm telling you, that kind of shi*tty, defeatist attitude is contagious.

Stop it. Unless you're happy with this or this, just stop it. Buck up and Get Out The Vote.

Do all Bush supporters think he is perfect? No. But they are going to show up, and if we haven't done everything we can to get Dems to the polls, pulling K/E '04, we are going to have our asses handed to us in November.

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