Kerry Moves Ahead

You've already heard, I'm sure, but:

Oct. 2 - With a solid majority of voters concluding that John Kerry outperformed George W. Bush in the first presidential debate on Thursday, the president’s lead in the race for the White House has vanished, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. In the first national telephone poll using a fresh sample, NEWSWEEK found the race now statistically tied among all registered voters, 47 percent of whom say they would vote for Kerry and 45 percent for George W. Bush in a three-way race.

Of course, that is a national poll. We do not have national elections, so what I am most interested in is how these electoral numbers will be affected in the coming days, as new state polls come off the press. The first set of numbers may not bode well for Bush:

Survey USA has polled over 20,000 people in 14 states and 21 cities to ask who won the first debate. In 11 states and 15 cities Kerry was the clear winner. In 2 states and 6 cities, Bush was the clear winner. Colorado was a tossup. Ominously for Bush, the 2 states that said he won the debate are Texas and Oklahoma, which he has in the bag already, but the states that gave Kerry the win include Oregon (by 19%), Maine (by 18%), Pennsylvania (by 22%), Arkansas (by 12%), and most significantly Florida (by 24%).

American Research Group has now produced more details on its post-debate poll. Not surprisingly, practically all Democrats thought Kerry won and practically all Republicans thought Bush won. But among independents, Kerry won by 19%.

(emphasis mine) Since the undecideds (along with turnout) will determine this election, I'm encouraged by this. 19% of independents in a state where the difference is within MOE is huge.

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