These polls

We've been hearing a lot about the poll numbers lately. We hear about how the numbers are really close. We hear about how one candidate or anothers' numbers shift after certain events. But where are these numbers coming from? I'm a registered voter, and I've never been polled. I hear the term 'likely voters' when I go to any of the polling sites to find out. So, who are these likely voters? Really, I'm curious. I can't seem to find any info on how they determine who is likely to vote and who isn't, so I will make wild assumptions.

• Wild assumption #1: Likely voters are people who have been registered in their county for more than one election cycle.
• Wild assumption #2: Likely voters have voted in previous elections.

So, based on those wild assumptions, it's safe to say that new voters --that is, people who have recently registered, or who have not voted in previous elections-- are not being counted in these polls. I would posit that many, probably a great majority, of these new voters have registered for the specific purpose of getting Bush out of office. Many counties across the country are reporting a huge influx of new registrants. I would bet that most of those people have been motivated to vote in order to get Bush out, not to keep him in.

Of course, my wild assumptions have often been wrong in the past, but I bet I'm right. We'll know next month, I suppose.